By GlobalDeskNews Staff | October 5, 2026
Brazil's presidential race delivered a stunning surprise on October 4, 2026: right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished AHEAD of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round — defying polls that had predicted a Lula victory.
First-Round Results: Bolsonaro 47.24%, Lula 44.91%
With over 98% of votes counted, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.24% of the vote against Lula's 44.91%, according to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. Since neither crossed the 50% threshold needed for an outright win, the two will face off in a runoff on October 25.
The result was significantly stronger for the right than opinion polls had forecast just days earlier.
| Candidate | First-round vote share |
|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 47.24% |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (incumbent) | 44.91% |
Over 98% of votes counted (Superior Electoral Court). 50% needed for an outright win; runoff set for October 25.
Bolsonaro's Moment in Brasília
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro — who is serving a 27-year prison sentence after being convicted of plotting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.
"I see this as the end of the PT era," Flávio told supporters in Brasília, referring to Lula's Workers' Party. "I can't wait to regain democracy in three weeks."
He has pledged to carry on his father's legacy, with a central proposal of ending presidential reelection: "I only need one term."
Lula's Uphill Battle to October 25
Lula, 80, aiming for a fourth nonconsecutive term, admitted surprise: "I confess I was convinced I would win in the first round. Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign."
The challenge is steep: the candidates who finished third, fourth and fifth are all right-wing, giving Bolsonaro a natural pool of voters to draw from. The right also made sweeping gains in Congress, particularly the Senate. Related: Argentina thrashed Burkina Faso 7-0 — read the match report.
"It is very hard to imagine Lula turning this around," said Oliver Stuenkel, a Brazilian professor of international relations. "Flávio Bolsonaro is now the clear favourite to be Brazil's next president."
Notably, since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, every winner of the first-round vote has gone on to win the runoff.
Key Takeaways
- Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.24% of the first-round vote to Lula's 44.91%, with over 98% counted (Superior Electoral Court).
- A runoff is set for October 25 — neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold.
- The result defied opinion polls that had forecast a Lula first-round win.
- Flávio, 45, pledged to end presidential reelection: "I only need one term."
- History favours him: since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, every first-round winner has won the runoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Brazil's presidential first round?
Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished first on October 4, 2026, with 47.24% against incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 44.91%, with over 98% of votes counted, according to Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. The result defied opinion polls that had forecast a Lula first-round victory, and since neither candidate crossed 50%, they face a runoff on October 25.
When is the Brazil runoff?
October 25, 2026 — Lula and Bolsonaro face off since neither reached the 50% threshold needed for an outright win. Lula admitted surprise at the first-round result and promised a new campaign, while history favours Bolsonaro: since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, every winner of the first-round vote has gone on to win the runoff.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a senator and the son of President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a prison sentence for plotting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula. Flávio pledged to carry on his father's legacy — 'I see this as the end of the PT era' — and wants to end presidential reelection: 'I only need one term.'
What did Lula say about the result?
Lula, 80, admitted surprise: 'I confess I was convinced I would win in the first round. Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign.' The challenge is steep — the candidates who finished third, fourth and fifth are all right-wing, giving Bolsonaro a natural pool of voters, and the right made sweeping gains in Congress, particularly the Senate.
Who is favoured to win the runoff?
Analysts favour Bolsonaro. 'It is very hard to imagine Lula turning this around,' said Oliver Stuenkel, a Brazilian professor of international relations: 'Flávio Bolsonaro is now the clear favourite to be Brazil's next president.' History agrees — since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, every winner of the first-round vote has gone on to win the runoff.