The oil price today kept Brent near $110 on Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Brent futures touched $110.70 a barrel on Monday — the highest since May 20 — then eased to hover between $109 and $110 as markets weighed a possible Trump waiver of Russia energy sanctions against the Houthis' claimed attacks on Saudi energy targets. For now, attack fears are winning.
Oil Price Today: Brent $110 Holds as Two Forces Collide
Brent hit $110.70 a barrel on Monday — its highest since May 20, Reuters reported — as traders braced for more blows to Gulf energy infrastructure.
Tuesday was choppier: Brent fell 49 cents (0.45%) to $109.06 a barrel by 0010 GMT, Reuters reported. November WTI, expiring Tuesday, eased 0.33% to $103.32; the more-active December contract fell 46 cents (0.47%) to $98.08.
A later Economic Times snapshot had Brent up 21 cents at $109.76 and WTI November up 0.11% at $104 — a Monday spike to $110.70, then a Tuesday in the $109–$110 band.
Trump Russia Sanctions Waiver: What It Means for Oil Markets
The main cooling hope was Trump's Friday-night order waiving key Russia-related US sanctions and tariffs — including duties on Russian goods and penalties for buying its oil and gas, Reuters reported.
It's far from final, though: Trump said Saturday he has yet to announce a final decision, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said officials want more time to evaluate.
Russia's output rose 65,000 barrels a day in September to 8.43 million bpd, the IEA said last week — still some 870,000 bpd below a year ago. (Background: Why Trump Waived Russia Sanctions Under US Pressure.)
Traders aren't convinced. "While the prospect of additional Russian diesel supply offers some theoretical relief, traders appear far more focused on the ongoing risk of further damage to energy infrastructure across the Gulf region," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade chief analyst.
Houthi Attacks and Oil Prices in the Middle East
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis claimed Monday they hit Saudi energy, airport and military targets — an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, and Riyadh's King Khalid and Abha airports.
Treat those as claims, not confirmed strikes. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm them, and Reuters could not independently verify them.
Confirmed, per Reuters: a Houthi attack Monday on a government security forces training camp in Yemen's Shabwa province killed 58 and injured over 200. (A previous GlobalDeskNews report used 53; reports range from 53 to 58.)
The renewed attacks heightened fears about regional stability and underscored risks to energy supply, keeping oil above $100 a barrel — and the shipping danger runs wider. See our report on the tanker that hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz this week.
Why It Matters
Here's why that matters: oil above $100 doesn't stay on trading screens — it lands at the pump, in freight bills, and in the inflation figures central banks are watching.
US supplies look tight too: crude stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week along with product inventories, a preliminary Reuters poll showed Monday.
Goldman Sachs also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to rise, with supply shocks hitting gas and refined products harder than crude — so heating and diesel bills take the harder hit.
What Happens Next
So what happens now? Two very different futures are on the table — as scenarios, not certainties.
Daan Struyven, Goldman's co-head of global commodities research, said recent attacks showed how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify. His scenario: $120-a-barrel oil if attacks on Middle East vessels escalate, near $80 if exports normalize — with shipping risks a key price driver holding significant upside potential.
JPMorgan was less certain: the war's trajectory was difficult to model, its analysts said. Early on, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds; seven months later, many had been crossed, with no clear exit strategy in sight.
Near-term, it all hinges on Trump's pending final decision on the waiver and whether the Houthis make good on more claimed attacks.
Key Takeaways
- Brent hit $110.70 Monday — highest since May 20 — then hovered near $109–$110 Tuesday.
- Trump's Friday-night order waived key Russia-related US sanctions and tariffs, including penalties for buying Russian oil and gas — no final decision yet, he said Saturday.
- The Houthis said Monday they hit Saudi energy, airport and military targets — Yanbu's Aramco site, Shaybah oilfield — but the claims are unconfirmed and unverified.
- A Houthi attack on a Shabwa training camp Monday killed 58 and injured 200+, per Reuters (reports range 53–58).
- Goldman Sachs sketched $120 and near-$80 scenarios (vessel attacks vs. normalized exports) — scenarios, not predictions.
- US crude and product stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week, per a preliminary Reuters poll.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are oil prices rising in October 2026?
Middle East escalation is the main driver: Houthi-claimed attacks on Saudi energy targets and tanker incidents have traders pricing in supply-disruption risk, while US crude and product stockpiles were expected to have fallen last week — outweighing hopes that Trump's Russia sanctions waiver would cool the market.
What is the Brent crude price today, October 20?
Brent hovered near $109–$110 a barrel on Tuesday, October 20: $109.06 by 0010 GMT per Reuters after a 49-cent fall, and $109.76 in a later Economic Times snapshot. The day before, Brent had spiked to $110.70 — its highest since May 20.
What did Trump's Russia sanctions waiver actually do?
The Friday-night executive order waived key Russia-related US sanctions and tariffs, including duties on Russian goods and penalties for buying its oil and gas — potentially bringing more Russian supply to markets. But it isn't final: Trump said Saturday he has yet to announce a final decision.
Did the Houthis really attack Saudi oil sites?
The Houthis said Monday they attacked Saudi energy, airport and military targets — an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh's King Khalid and Abha airports. But Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the claims and Reuters could not independently verify them: claims, not confirmed strikes.
What is the Goldman Sachs oil $120 forecast scenario?
It's a scenario, not a prediction: Goldman Sachs outlined how oil could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said shipping-disruption risks had become a key price driver with significant upside potential; if exports normalize, prices could fall toward $80.
Will oil prices keep rising from here?
No one can say; the banks are split. Goldman Sachs sees significant upside potential if vessel attacks escalate, while JPMorgan says the war's trajectory is difficult to model and a clear exit strategy remains elusive. Near-term triggers: Trump's pending waiver decision, and whether further attacks materialize.
Sources
- Reuters: Oil eases as markets assess potential waiver of Russian energy sanctions, Middle East supply
- Economic Times: Oil price today October 20 — crude oil nears $110 again as fresh attacks outweigh easing Russian sanctions
- GlobalDeskNews: Oil Tanker Hits Mine in Strait of Hormuz, Catches Fire
- GlobalDeskNews: Why Trump Waived Russia Sanctions Under US Pressure