Quick Answer: Brent crude topped $113 a barrel on Thursday — its highest close since May 4 — as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and the risk of wider US-Iran hostilities rattled oil markets. US West Texas Intermediate climbed to $99.47 as Washington ordered nonemergency staff out of the kingdom.
This story follows our coverage of the attacks driving the rally. Previously: Dammam Airport Attack: Death Toll Rises to Two; Iran's IRGC Claims 7 Vessels Hit, Warns US of Wider Response; Saudi Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Aimed at Najran.
File photo: An oil refinery. Brent crude closed above $113 a barrel on Thursday, its highest close since May 4, as Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure rattled markets. Photo: Pedro Szekely, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Brent's Biggest Jump in Months
Oil futures rose sharply on Thursday, with December Brent crude futures climbing 4% to $113.17 a barrel — the benchmark's highest close since May 4 — as Yemen's Houthis launched fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure and traders priced in the risk of further US-Iran hostilities disrupting Middle East oil supplies, the Wall Street Journal reported.
December West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.4% to $99.47 a barrel. The rally built through the trading day: earlier on Thursday, Reuters reported Brent up $1.29, or 1.2%, at $110.11 a barrel in early trading, before the fresh wave of attacks and escalation fears pushed prices decisively higher.
"The geopolitical bid is alive and well," Price Futures Group senior market analyst Phil Flynn said in a note. "Brent is showing more muscle, climbing back into the low-to-mid $110s. The war premium is real, but so are the market's jitters whenever de-escalation talk hits the tape."
Analysts at MUFG said Thursday that the attacks have yet to materially affect Saudi oil production or exports — but the deliberate targeting of energy facilities is keeping a substantial geopolitical risk premium in crude markets. The bank added that physical oil-price spreads have narrowed in recent weeks, although threats to shipping remain.
Map: Transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway at the center of the escalation. Shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through October 18, above prewar levels, Kpler data showed. (Map: Wikideas1, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons)
The Attacks Behind the Rally
The price surge was driven by a grim drumbeat of attacks. On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said air defenses intercepted a drone targeting a facility at Saudi Aramco's Shaybah oil field. Falling debris killed two people and injured two others, though the incident didn't affect operations, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
That strike followed attacks on civilian targets: Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis struck several targets on Wednesday, with at least one person killed and eight more wounded at a civilian airport in Dammam, and two people killed in a drone attack on a Saudi oil field, Reuters reported. Shipping has not been spared either — the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported Wednesday that a tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, causing a fire, though the crew was reported safe.
Kpler data cited by Reuters counted at least 18 attacks on shipping over the past two weeks, while LSEG analysts warned that Iran was targeting tankers well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, reaching into the Gulf of Oman and jeopardizing Gulf crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers.
Washington Orders Staff Out as Carriers Move In
The market's fear is not just about the attacks that have happened — it is about the war that might come next. The United States has ordered nonemergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid the continued Houthi attacks, the Journal reported, while the State Department plans to withdraw family members from a number of other US missions in the region, US officials told Reuters.
At the same time, the Journal reported that Washington is preparing additional military options against Iran and moving a third aircraft carrier strike group toward the region amid threats of renewed fighting. Middle East mediators are seeking to revive negotiations, but the military buildup and the diplomatic scramble are pulling in opposite directions — exactly the kind of uncertainty that keeps the war premium in oil prices elevated.
President Trump added his own spin on Truth Social, saying Iran is doing all it can to drive up oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections. "They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else," he wrote, claiming that "more oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the conflict." Iran, for its part, says it is fully prepared to defend itself: Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told the Financial Times on Wednesday that Tehran was ready, while President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media the US could not expect dialogue while blockading and threatening Iran.
File photo: Oil storage tanks at a refinery. US crude inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels last week — nearly four times the expected draw — tightening an already strained market. Photo: Carl Young, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
Tight Inventories Add Fuel to the Fire
Geopolitics is not the only thing pushing prices up — the physical market is tight too. US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for an 820,000-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 1.68 million barrels to 104.3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.16 million-barrel drop.
The Trump administration is offering to loan up to nearly a third of the 1-million-barrel US emergency heating oil reserve, the Department of Energy said on Wednesday, seeking to contain prices that have surged on diesel shortages driven by the wars in Iran and Ukraine.
There is a paradox in the data, though. Despite the persistent risks, Middle East crude exports have recovered substantially: shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through October 18 — above the prewar level of 23.3 million barrels a day, according to Kpler. And the Journal reported, citing Kpler data, that Iranian crude held in floating storage in Asian waters was depleted by mid-October under the US blockade. The oil is flowing; the market simply no longer trusts that it will keep flowing.
Why This Oil Rally Matters
A $113 barrel of Brent is not just a trader's number — it is a tax on everything. Diesel shortages are already squeezing US refiners and truckers, heating-oil prices are climbing into winter, and for import-dependent economies across Asia, every extra dollar on crude widens trade deficits and feeds inflation. The rally lands just as voters in the US head toward midterm elections with frustration over rising prices already running high.
The deeper signal is what the market is saying about the war's trajectory. Prices at five-month highs, with a full war premium baked in, mean traders now treat escalation as the base case, not the tail risk. Every Houthi drone, every tanker incident, every carrier movement gets priced instantly — and de-escalation talk, as Phil Flynn noted, only briefly calms the jitters.
What Happens Next
The next catalysts are military, not economic. Whether Washington's carrier buildup and military options turn into strikes on Iran — or whether mediators pull the parties back toward negotiations — will decide whether Brent holds above $110 or spikes further. Inventory data and any disruption to actual loadings through Hormuz or the Gulf of Oman will move prices day to day.
For consumers, the direction is unwelcome either way in the near term: with diesel in shortage, heating oil being loaned from emergency reserves, and a war premium firmly embedded, relief at the pump looks distant. The market's message is blunt — as long as drones keep flying at Saudi infrastructure, oil stays expensive.
Frequently Asked Questions
How high did oil prices go on Thursday?
December Brent crude futures rose 4% to close at $113.17 a barrel, the highest close since May 4, the Wall Street Journal reported. December US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.4% to $99.47 a barrel. Earlier in the day, Brent had traded around $110.11.
Why are oil prices surging?
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's civilian and energy infrastructure — including a drone intercepted at Aramco's Shaybah oil field — plus the risk of wider US-Iran hostilities have layered a large geopolitical risk premium onto crude. Tight US inventories and diesel shortages are adding further upward pressure.
Did the attacks disrupt Saudi oil production?
Not materially, analysts say. MUFG noted Thursday that the attacks have yet to significantly affect Saudi oil production or exports. But the deliberate targeting of energy facilities keeps a substantial risk premium in prices, and shipping threats persist across the region.
Why did the US order staff out of Saudi Arabia?
The US ordered nonemergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid continued Houthi attacks, and plans to withdraw family members from other regional missions too. Washington is also moving a third aircraft carrier strike group toward the region as it prepares additional military options against Iran.
What did Trump say about oil prices?
On Truth Social, President Trump accused Iran of trying to drive up oil prices ahead of the US midterm elections, writing that Tehran is "making up fake hits, mines, and everything else." He claimed more oil is now moving through the Strait of Hormuz than before the conflict began.
Are oil inventories really that tight?
US commercial crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels last week — nearly four times the expected draw — the EIA reported. The administration is offering to loan up to nearly a third of the 1-million-barrel emergency heating oil reserve to ease diesel-driven price pressure.
Could prices go higher?
Analysts say the trajectory depends on escalation: US strikes on Iran or a major shipping disruption could spike prices further, while successful de-escalation talks would unwind the war premium. With the premium firmly embedded, near-term relief looks unlikely, though MUFG noted Thursday that physical price spreads have narrowed even as shipping threats remain.
Key Takeaways
- December Brent crude closed at $113.17 a barrel on Thursday, up 4% — its highest close since May 4; WTI rose 2.4% to $99.47.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi energy and civilian infrastructure, including the Shaybah oil field drone interception, drove the rally.
- The US ordered nonemergency staff and families out of Saudi Arabia and is moving a third carrier strike group toward the region.
- US crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels — far more than expected — tightening an already strained physical market.
- Trump accused Iran of engineering high prices before the midterms; Tehran says it is fully prepared to defend itself.
- Analysts say a substantial geopolitical risk premium is now embedded in prices, with escalation as the market's base case.
Byline: GlobalDeskNews Staff
Sources
- The Wall Street Journal — "Oil Futures Rise as Attacks on Saudi Arabia, U.S.-Iran Risks Persist"
- Reuters — "Oil rises as US orders diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia amid escalating tensions"
- Related on GlobalDeskNews: Dammam Airport Attack: Death Toll Rises to Two; Iran's IRGC Claims 7 Vessels Hit, Warns US of Wider Response; Saudi Intercepts Houthi Ballistic Missile Aimed at Najran